Results



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Results

Figure 2 shows the evolution with time of the maximum azimuthal velocity in a control run, and compares it with the result of running the original model of E89. Both have been initialized using the warm core vortex and boundary conditions described in E89, with parameter values listed in Table 2. The evolutions, as well as the radial distributions of variables (not shown), are very similar in the two cases. Given that the only substantive difference here is the use of a cumulus scheme based on subcloud-layer equilibrium, the similarity of the results of running both models supports the conclusion of E89 that the hurricane subcloud layer is very nearly in equilibrium, even during rapid development.

In other respects, as well, the reformulated model behaves very similarly to the original, displaying the same sensitivity to the control parameters and initial conditions. The sensitivity to the convective relaxation time scale, , which appears in (32) is weak. On the other hand, the model proves very sensitive to the parameters and that are present in the lower-tropospheric entropy equation, (30), as illustrated in Figure 3. This is hardly surprising in view of the arguments set forth in section 2.

As suggested by E89, the near saturation of a mesoscale column of the troposphere at the cyclone core is a necessary condition for intensification. This conjecture is also supported by the results of a recent field experiment (Emanuel, 1994b). Only when the troposphere is nearly saturated are the downdrafts that normally accompany deep convection suppressed; this allows surface fluxes to actually increase the entropy of the subcloud layer and, through moist adiabatic adjustment, the temperature of the troposphere. This conclusion is also supported by an experiment in which the initial vortex is very weak, but a mesoscale column is saturated initially. As shown in Figure 4, the small initial disturbance grows rapidly, whereas the same disturbance in the normal tropical atmosphere, with low aloft everywhere, dies.

One interesting aspect of the model's behavior is the appearance of multiple eyewalls when the initial relative humidity of the troposphere is high. Figure 5 shows the updraft mass flux as a function of radius at a particular time for an experiment in which (compared to in the control case). Outer eyewalls form and gradually move inward, while the inner eyewalls dissipate, resembling the observed behavior of concentric eyewall cycles (Willoughby, et al., 1982). The mean position of the eyewall as well as the entire storm circulation expand very gradually in the radial direction during these model cycles.



next up previous
Next: Summary Up: THE BEHAVIOR OF A Previous: Hurricane model



Kerry Emanuel
Mon Jan 5 07:19:46 EST 1998