Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts and Guidance

 

Disclaimer: The tropical cyclone objective aids displayed on this web site are collected from multiple forecast centers and may or may not be the most
current data available to the operational forecast centers. The MIT tropical meteorology group obtains these forecasts for research purposes and assumes
no responsibility for their use in the forecasting of tropical cyclones. Concerned individuals or organizations should confirm these forecasts with
official sources.

 

 


 


 

The NCEP track ensembles for each storm may be found at http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/track_ens.html

 

CHIPS forecasts in ATCF format may be downloaded from ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/JTWC/

 

 

 

Legend

  

Note: Last letter I in acronym denotes interpolation from previous forecast

 

CPHC: Central Pacific Hurricane Center

JTWC: Joint Typhoon Warning Center

NHC:   National Hurricane Center

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AEMN: NCEP GFS ensemble mean

AFW1: MM5 AVN

AVNO: NCEP GFS run

A90E: NHC 90 Early (Statistical-dynamical model)

A98E: NHC 98 Early (Statistical-dynamical model)

BAMD: Beta and Advection Model (Deep layer version)

CHIPS: Coupled Hurricane Intensity Prediction System

CHIPS Ens.: CHIPS ensembles. These are constructed by varying the initial intensity, initial rate of intensification, and shear. Shear is derived from NCEP GFS forecasts.

COAL: NRL COAMPS

EGRR: United Kingdom Meteorological Office

GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model

GFDN: FNMOC version of GFDL

GFDT: SAFA translated version of GFDN (SAFA=Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Aid)

HWRF: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

JTYM: Japan Meteorological Agency Typhoon Model

JAVN: GFS positions from WXMAP

LBAR: DeMaria barotropic model

NGPS: NOGAPS

NGPT: SAFA translated version of NOGAPS

SHIPS: Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction System

STIPS: Statistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction System (Pacific version of SHIPS)

TCLP: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

UKMO: United Kingdom Meteorological Office